The pace of growth of the no/low-alcohol category is expected to surpass that of the last 4 years, with forecast volume CAGR of +7 percent, 2022- 26, compared to +5 percent, 2018-22. No-alcohol will spearhead this growth, expected to account for over 90 percent of the forecast total category volume growth.
Among the ten focus markets examined in the December 2022 release of the IWSR no and low alcohol strategic study (Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, South Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the market value of no/low alcohol products in 2022 surpassed $11billion, up from $8 billion in 2018.
“The dynamic no/low-alcohol category presents opportunities for incremental sales growth as consumers are recruited from drinks categories such as soft drinks and water. Brand owners have an opportunity to recruit non-drinkers of alcohol,” comments Susie Goldspink, Head of No- and Low-Alcohol, IWSR Drinks Market Analysis. “As more people opt to avoid alcohol on certain occasions – or abstain from it altogether – no-alcohol is steadily increasing its share of the no/low category.”
No-alcohol products spearhead overall category growth: No-alcohol volumes grew 9 percenz in 2022, increasing their share of the overall no/low-alcohol space in the world’s ten leading no/low markets to 70 percent, up from 65 percent in 2018. “No-alcohol is growing faster than low-alcohol in most markets,” says Goldspink. “The countries where this does not apply, such as Japan and Brazil, are early-stage low-alcohol markets with a small volume base.”
Improved taste, production techniques, and a diversification of consumption occasions, are driving no-alcohol’s dominance over low-alcohol in many markets. IWSR expects no-alcohol volumes to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +9 percent between 2022 and 2026.
Germany remains world’s largest no/low-alcohol market; others show more dynamic growth: The maturity of the no/low-alcohol category varies widely by market. Germany, the world’s largest and most mature no/low-alcohol market, will see relatively slow growth due to beer market maturity and lack of innovation.
