The downward revision is primarily attributed to smaller fruit size and increased premature fruit drop. Both factors are linked to prolonged drought conditions and delayed rainfall. Between May and November, average precipitation reached 392 mm, around 20 percent below the historical average. Significant rainfall deficits across most regions limited fruit development.
By mid-November, approximately 65 percent of the crop had been harvested. A large share of Pera oranges was picked under drought stress. Updated measurements indicate smaller fruit sizes across most varieties, resulting in a higher number of fruits per box, increasing on average from 258 to 265 oranges per box.
Premature fruit drop has also intensified, rising from 22 percent to 23 percent. Key contributing factors include drought stress, strong wind events in September and a further spread of citrus greening disease.
Forecast figures will continue to be refined as the harvest progresses. The next update is scheduled for 10 February 2026.
